Palavras-chave
Veículos elétricos
Cenário competitivo
Resiliência estratégica
Aprendizagem organizacional
Foresight de cenários
China
Como Citar
Resumo
Objetivo: Este estudo desenvolve uma estrutura analítica de Inteligência Competitiva Sustentável (ICS) que transforma sinais públicos de mercado do setor chinês de veículos elétricos de passageiros em inteligência estruturada do cenário competitivo, apoio à decisão estratégica e uma lógica replicável de monitoramento e feedback.
Metodologia/abordagem: O componente empírico consiste em uma análise retrospectiva, baseada em uma única versão dos dados, da edição 2024 do Global EV Data da International Energy Agency. O extrato histórico arquivado não contém registros observados posteriores a 2023 utilizados nesta análise; os registros STEPS/APS de 2025, 2030 e 2035 são mantidos e analisados separadamente como resultados condicionais de cenários. A análise combina penetração de mercado, participações tecnológicas, HHI, entropia de Shannon normalizada, momentum da demanda, intensidade de recarga, diagnósticos de co-movimento de Spearman em primeiras diferenças, sensibilidade de cenários e verificações de robustez.
Originalidade/Relevância: O estudo distingue a análise de mercado baseada em dados públicos da capacidade organizacional de Inteligência Competitiva. A Inteligência Competitiva Sustentável é conceituada como um ciclo recorrente de planejamento, sensing, análise, disseminação, utilização, governança, feedback, aprendizagem organizacional e resiliência estratégica, e não como sinônimo de um mercado verde.
Principais resultados: As vendas observadas de veículos elétricos de passageiros atingiram 8,10 milhões em 2023 e representaram 38% das vendas de novos automóveis de passageiros. O HHI tecnológico de 2023 foi de aproximadamente 0,555 e a entropia normalizada, de aproximadamente 0,580. O número de pontos públicos de recarga chegou a 2,70 milhões. Tanto o cenário STEPS quanto o APS indicam uma penetração de 85% dos veículos elétricos nas vendas de automóveis de passageiros em 2035, enquanto a composição tecnológica especialmente dos FCEVs permanece sensível aos cenários.
Contribuições teóricas/metodológicas: A estrutura relaciona inteligência de mercado, inteligência da estrutura competitiva, prontidão do ecossistema e inteligência de foresight de cenários à tomada de decisão e a um ciclo longitudinal de feedback. As afirmações empíricas estão delimitadas à inteligência do cenário competitivo no nível dos segmentos tecnológicos; as correlações em primeiras diferenças são exploratórias e não causais.
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